“The aviation fuel market remains adequately supplied despite recent media reports suggesting tightening availability and rising prices.” This assertion from George Ene-Ita, Director of Public Affairs at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), comes at a crucial time when many are questioning the stability of fuel supplies amid global tensions.
The NMDPRA has recently reported a total of 74 days of aviation fuel supply sufficiency. This figure includes 12 days of inland stock sufficiency and an additional 62 days covered by refinery stock. Such numbers provide a reassuring backdrop against the backdrop of rising fuel prices that have been making headlines worldwide.
That context matters because while Nigeria’s situation appears secure, airlines in Europe and Asia are grappling with potential jet fuel shortages stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Iran war. The ripple effects are being felt globally; for instance, Delta Airlines anticipates an additional $2 billion in fuel costs this year due to these escalating prices, while United Airlines could see its expenses rise by a staggering $11 billion if conditions do not improve.
In Nigeria, the ex-gantry price of aviation fuel from Dangote Petroleum Refinery was reported at N1,879 per litre as of April 16, 2026. Nationwide retail prices range between N1,960 and N2,800 per litre as of April 17, 2026. These figures illustrate how domestic pricing is influenced by broader market trends. But how sustainable is this pricing amid global fluctuations?
The International Energy Agency has warned that several European countries may face jet fuel shortages in the next six weeks. With airlines already feeling pressure from rising costs—Spirit Airlines has cautioned that higher fuel prices could have a substantial negative impact on its financial results—the stakes are high. Financially weaker airlines may struggle to absorb these combined pressures and could default or return aircraft early, as noted by Fitch Ratings.
Still, Nigeria’s aviation sector stands apart with its fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces. This means that while local supply seems adequate for now, external pressures might eventually trickle down to affect domestic consumers and airlines alike.
As we look towards the future, it’s crucial to remember that while Nigeria’s aviation fuel supply appears stable today, uncertainties loom large globally. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how long this stability can last if international tensions escalate further.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s situation serves as a microcosm of a larger global issue—fuel supply chains are intricately linked across borders. The question remains: how will local markets adapt if global shortages become more pronounced?