Fuel Price Hike in Nigeria
“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” said a source from the Dangote refinery.
This statement comes as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has increased fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours. The pump price in Abuja has been adjusted from N967 to N1,082 per liter.
Retail pump prices in several states have now exceeded N1,000 per liter, with some stations reportedly dispensing petrol at around N1,200 per liter. This surge in prices has raised concerns among consumers and industry stakeholders alike.
The increase in prices is compounded by the temporary suspension of loading Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) at the Dangote refinery, which has seen its gantry price rise from N874 to N995 per liter.
In 2025, US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels, marking a 161% increase from the previous year. However, the Dangote refinery is currently receiving only five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the required thirteen cargoes under the naira-for-crude policy.
As crude oil prices have surged above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the implications for local fuel pricing are becoming increasingly pronounced.
Mohammed Ibrahim, an industry expert, commented, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This sentiment reflects the ongoing tensions between local refineries and fuel importers in Nigeria.
A Dangote refinery official stated, “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply,” highlighting the challenges faced by local producers amidst rising global prices.
Jeremiah Olatide, another industry voice, noted, “If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” underscoring the critical role of local refining in stabilizing prices.
As the situation unfolds, the immediate impact of the crude oil supply intervention on petrol prices remains unclear. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices.