Each marketer is expected to import 30,000 metric tonnes, contributing to a total of 243 million litres of petrol expected to be imported. This shift in policy is significant, especially given the current operational challenges faced by local refineries, including the Dangote refinery, which is currently operating at its full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day but is only receiving five cargoes of crude monthly instead of the anticipated 13 to 15 cargoes.

Jeremiah Olatide, a spokesperson for the NMDPRA, confirmed that the decision to issue import licenses was taken to mitigate the supply issues affecting the market. He stated, “Yes, it’s true. NMDPRA has begun issuing import permits; the number of permits issued lately is relatively low, which shows local refining still dominates, but we need to stabilise the market through imports.” This reflects a broader concern among oil marketers and domestic crude refiners who have urged the Federal Government to enhance crude supply to local refineries.

Historically, the Federal Government’s policy has aimed at reducing dependence on imported fuel. However, recent geopolitical tensions and supply concerns have prompted a reversal of this stance. The naira-for-crude deal, designed to stabilize Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, has also come under scrutiny. A senior management official of the Dangote Group noted, “The naira-for-crude deal was conceived by His Excellency, the President,” indicating the government’s commitment to this strategy.

Despite the reopening of fuel imports, there are still challenges to address. In February 2026, local refineries supplied only 36.5 million litres of petrol per day, with imports contributing a mere 3 million litres to the total supply. This disparity underscores the ongoing issues within Nigeria’s oil sector, where local production has not yet fully met domestic demand.

David Bird, an industry analyst, emphasized the need for clarity regarding the naira-for-crude deal, stating, “The naira-for-crude deal is not there to benefit the Dangote refinery. That is a fundamental misunderstanding.” He further argued that crude sold to Nigerian refineries should not carry full international export costs, including freight and insurance, to ensure competitiveness and sustainability in the local market.

The numbers

As the Federal Government navigates these complexities, observers are keenly watching how the new import licenses will impact the fuel market. The NMDPRA’s actions reflect an urgent response to supply challenges, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the timeline for the imports and the potential impact on local prices.

In summary, the reopening of fuel imports by the Federal Government marks a significant shift in policy aimed at addressing immediate supply gaps in Nigeria’s petrol market. As the situation develops, stakeholders will be looking for further clarity on how these changes will influence both local refineries and the broader oil market.

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