The nomination is now pending Senate confirmation, a crucial step that will determine whether Umar can officially take office. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, stated, “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, has approved the removal of Mr. Saidu Mohammed as the Authority Chief Executive of NMDPRA, in the public interest.” This decision aligns with the provisions set forth in the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

Umar brings over 25 years of experience across various sectors, including energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. He holds a degree in Accounting from Bayero University and is an alumnus of Harvard Business School. His extensive background may position him well to address the challenges facing Nigeria’s energy sector.

That context matters because regulatory effectiveness has been a persistent issue within Nigeria’s petroleum industry. The change in leadership comes after Farouk Ahmed, the pioneer Chief Executive, exited in December 2025. This transition reflects ongoing efforts to strengthen oversight and governance in a sector critical to Nigeria’s economy.

While Umar awaits confirmation, the most senior official at NMDPRA will oversee operations in an acting capacity. Observers are keenly watching how this leadership change will influence regulatory practices and policies moving forward.

The decision to replace Saidu Mohammed underscores a broader commitment to reform within Nigeria’s oil and gas industry—a sector that significantly impacts national revenue and economic stability.

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The NMDPRA has recently reported a total of 74 days of aviation fuel supply sufficiency. This figure includes 12 days of inland stock sufficiency and an additional 62 days covered by refinery stock. Such numbers provide a reassuring backdrop against the backdrop of rising fuel prices that have been making headlines worldwide.

That context matters because while Nigeria’s situation appears secure, airlines in Europe and Asia are grappling with potential jet fuel shortages stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Iran war. The ripple effects are being felt globally; for instance, Delta Airlines anticipates an additional $2 billion in fuel costs this year due to these escalating prices, while United Airlines could see its expenses rise by a staggering $11 billion if conditions do not improve.

In Nigeria, the ex-gantry price of aviation fuel from Dangote Petroleum Refinery was reported at N1,879 per litre as of April 16, 2026. Nationwide retail prices range between N1,960 and N2,800 per litre as of April 17, 2026. These figures illustrate how domestic pricing is influenced by broader market trends. But how sustainable is this pricing amid global fluctuations?

The International Energy Agency has warned that several European countries may face jet fuel shortages in the next six weeks. With airlines already feeling pressure from rising costs—Spirit Airlines has cautioned that higher fuel prices could have a substantial negative impact on its financial results—the stakes are high. Financially weaker airlines may struggle to absorb these combined pressures and could default or return aircraft early, as noted by Fitch Ratings.

Still, Nigeria’s aviation sector stands apart with its fully deregulated market where prices are determined by market forces. This means that while local supply seems adequate for now, external pressures might eventually trickle down to affect domestic consumers and airlines alike.

As we look towards the future, it’s crucial to remember that while Nigeria’s aviation fuel supply appears stable today, uncertainties loom large globally. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how long this stability can last if international tensions escalate further.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s situation serves as a microcosm of a larger global issue—fuel supply chains are intricately linked across borders. The question remains: how will local markets adapt if global shortages become more pronounced?

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Each marketer is expected to import 30,000 metric tonnes, contributing to a total of 243 million litres of petrol expected to be imported. This shift in policy is significant, especially given the current operational challenges faced by local refineries, including the Dangote refinery, which is currently operating at its full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day but is only receiving five cargoes of crude monthly instead of the anticipated 13 to 15 cargoes.

Jeremiah Olatide, a spokesperson for the NMDPRA, confirmed that the decision to issue import licenses was taken to mitigate the supply issues affecting the market. He stated, “Yes, it’s true. NMDPRA has begun issuing import permits; the number of permits issued lately is relatively low, which shows local refining still dominates, but we need to stabilise the market through imports.” This reflects a broader concern among oil marketers and domestic crude refiners who have urged the Federal Government to enhance crude supply to local refineries.

Historically, the Federal Government’s policy has aimed at reducing dependence on imported fuel. However, recent geopolitical tensions and supply concerns have prompted a reversal of this stance. The naira-for-crude deal, designed to stabilize Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, has also come under scrutiny. A senior management official of the Dangote Group noted, “The naira-for-crude deal was conceived by His Excellency, the President,” indicating the government’s commitment to this strategy.

Despite the reopening of fuel imports, there are still challenges to address. In February 2026, local refineries supplied only 36.5 million litres of petrol per day, with imports contributing a mere 3 million litres to the total supply. This disparity underscores the ongoing issues within Nigeria’s oil sector, where local production has not yet fully met domestic demand.

David Bird, an industry analyst, emphasized the need for clarity regarding the naira-for-crude deal, stating, “The naira-for-crude deal is not there to benefit the Dangote refinery. That is a fundamental misunderstanding.” He further argued that crude sold to Nigerian refineries should not carry full international export costs, including freight and insurance, to ensure competitiveness and sustainability in the local market.

The numbers

As the Federal Government navigates these complexities, observers are keenly watching how the new import licenses will impact the fuel market. The NMDPRA’s actions reflect an urgent response to supply challenges, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the timeline for the imports and the potential impact on local prices.

In summary, the reopening of fuel imports by the Federal Government marks a significant shift in policy aimed at addressing immediate supply gaps in Nigeria’s petrol market. As the situation develops, stakeholders will be looking for further clarity on how these changes will influence both local refineries and the broader oil market.

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The price of fuel in Nigeria has been influenced by global crude oil prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Recently, the Dangote Refinery announced a reduction in petrol prices, lowering the cost to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre. This change marks a significant shift in the market, as the price of diesel was also reduced to N1,430 per litre from N1,620 per litre.

Additionally, petrol supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at N1,050 per litre. In contrast, petrol prices in Abuja currently range between N1,260 and N1,280 per litre, while in Lagos, prices are between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre. Prior to these adjustments, petrol prices were between N809 and N835 per litre.

The recent price reductions have been welcomed by consumers, but they come amidst a backdrop of fluctuating global oil prices and regional instability. President Bola Tinubu has also ordered the deployment of 100,000 CNG conversion kits, a move aimed at diversifying fuel options and potentially stabilizing prices further.

Key industry players and observers are closely monitoring the situation. The adjustments in fuel prices are expected to have a ripple effect on the economy, influencing transportation costs and overall inflation rates. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is likely to play a crucial role in overseeing these changes and ensuring compliance with new pricing structures.

As the market adjusts to these new prices, stakeholders are optimistic about the potential for greater stability in fuel costs. However, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global oil supplies remain a concern. Observers are keen to see how these factors will influence future pricing and availability of fuel in Nigeria.

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