The North Africa regional outlook for 2026 presents a troubling picture, with rising migrant deaths in the Mediterranean and significant political developments across several countries. Early data indicates a surge in crossings and fatalities, with nearly 8,000 deaths reported along global migration routes in 2025, a figure that experts believe may be underreported.

In a particularly tragic incident last month, a vessel carrying migrants capsized off the Libyan coast, resulting in 53 individuals either confirmed dead or unaccounted for. This incident underscores the perilous journeys many undertake in search of safety and better opportunities, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive migration policies.

Political Developments in Tunisia and Ethiopia

Amid these humanitarian crises, political instability continues to plague North African nations. In Tunisia, a court sentenced businessman Marouan Mabrouk to 20 years in prison for money laundering and corruption. This case has drawn attention to the broader issues of governance and accountability in the country.

Additionally, former Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed received a six-year sentence in absentia for lifting an asset freeze on Mabrouk’s European holdings, further complicating Tunisia’s political landscape. The ongoing crackdown on flotilla-related gatherings has also seen the arrest of five organizers by Tunisian counter-terrorism police, reflecting heightened tensions surrounding migration and political dissent.

Security Concerns in the Sahel

In the Sahel region, security dynamics are shifting as Ethiopia reportedly hosts a covert training facility for approximately 4,300 Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters, allegedly financed by the UAE. This development raises concerns about the potential for increased instability and violence in the region, as the RSF has been implicated in various human rights abuses.

The launch of the Alliance of Sahel States Unified Force in December 2025 aims to enhance regional security cooperation, building on the structural improvements over the previous G5 Sahel initiative. However, the effectiveness of this new force remains to be seen, and observers are cautious about its potential impact on the ongoing security challenges in the region.

Uncertainties Ahead

As the situation evolves, uncertainties persist. The true number of migrant deaths may be higher than reported due to undercounting, complicating efforts to address the crisis. Additionally, the impact of the new Alliance of Sahel States Unified Force on regional security is unclear, leaving many questions about the future of stability in North Africa.

Details remain unconfirmed, but the interconnectedness of the Mediterranean and Sahel regions continues to shape the outlook for North Africa, where security, migration, and political dynamics are increasingly intertwined.

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