Each marketer is expected to import 30,000 metric tonnes, contributing to a total of 243 million litres of petrol expected to be imported. This shift in policy is significant, especially given the current operational challenges faced by local refineries, including the Dangote refinery, which is currently operating at its full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day but is only receiving five cargoes of crude monthly instead of the anticipated 13 to 15 cargoes.

Jeremiah Olatide, a spokesperson for the NMDPRA, confirmed that the decision to issue import licenses was taken to mitigate the supply issues affecting the market. He stated, “Yes, it’s true. NMDPRA has begun issuing import permits; the number of permits issued lately is relatively low, which shows local refining still dominates, but we need to stabilise the market through imports.” This reflects a broader concern among oil marketers and domestic crude refiners who have urged the Federal Government to enhance crude supply to local refineries.

Historically, the Federal Government’s policy has aimed at reducing dependence on imported fuel. However, recent geopolitical tensions and supply concerns have prompted a reversal of this stance. The naira-for-crude deal, designed to stabilize Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, has also come under scrutiny. A senior management official of the Dangote Group noted, “The naira-for-crude deal was conceived by His Excellency, the President,” indicating the government’s commitment to this strategy.

Despite the reopening of fuel imports, there are still challenges to address. In February 2026, local refineries supplied only 36.5 million litres of petrol per day, with imports contributing a mere 3 million litres to the total supply. This disparity underscores the ongoing issues within Nigeria’s oil sector, where local production has not yet fully met domestic demand.

David Bird, an industry analyst, emphasized the need for clarity regarding the naira-for-crude deal, stating, “The naira-for-crude deal is not there to benefit the Dangote refinery. That is a fundamental misunderstanding.” He further argued that crude sold to Nigerian refineries should not carry full international export costs, including freight and insurance, to ensure competitiveness and sustainability in the local market.

The numbers

As the Federal Government navigates these complexities, observers are keenly watching how the new import licenses will impact the fuel market. The NMDPRA’s actions reflect an urgent response to supply challenges, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the timeline for the imports and the potential impact on local prices.

In summary, the reopening of fuel imports by the Federal Government marks a significant shift in policy aimed at addressing immediate supply gaps in Nigeria’s petrol market. As the situation develops, stakeholders will be looking for further clarity on how these changes will influence both local refineries and the broader oil market.

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On March 10, 2026, the Dangote refinery announced a reduction in its ex-gantry petrol price to ₦1,075 per litre, down from ₦1,175 per litre. This marks a significant shift in the pricing structure after three consecutive hikes in petrol prices.

Details of the Price Adjustments

In addition to the petrol price reduction, the price of diesel has also been adjusted, now set at ₦1,430 per litre, down from ₦1,620 per litre. The coastal distribution price for petrol is now ₦1,050 per litre, providing some relief to consumers amidst fluctuating oil prices.

Context Behind the Changes

The recent adjustments come in the wake of rising global oil prices, which have been influenced by various geopolitical events. The Dangote refinery’s pricing strategy appears to be a response to these market dynamics, aiming to stabilize fuel availability in Nigeria.

Historical Pricing Trends

Prior to the recent reductions, petrol prices had seen a steady increase, with rates reaching ₦995 per litre on March 7, 2026, and ₦874 per litre on March 2, 2026. The fluctuations highlight the volatility in the fuel market, which has been a concern for consumers and industry stakeholders alike.

Statements from Industry Leaders

According to a statement from the Dangote refinery, “Under the revised pricing structure, the gantry price of PMS has been reduced from ₦1,175 to ₦1,075 (₦100) per litre.” Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry emphasized the importance of the Dangote refinery, stating, “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us due to the consistent source of product, which is much more important at this time than anything.” This sentiment reflects the critical role the refinery plays in ensuring fuel supply stability.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the positive news regarding price reductions, challenges remain. David Bird noted, “We have paused loadings as of midnight, and we’re updating the system to the new gantry price as a result of oil spiking $30 in the last 24 hours.” This indicates that while prices have been reduced, the market remains susceptible to rapid changes.

What Lies Ahead?

As the fuel market continues to evolve, the implications of these price adjustments will be closely monitored. The Dangote refinery’s ability to maintain stable pricing amidst global fluctuations will be crucial for consumers and the broader economy. Details remain unconfirmed regarding future pricing strategies and potential impacts on supply chains.

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On March 10, 2026, the Dangote refinery announced a reduction in its ex-gantry petrol price to ₦1,075 per litre, down from ₦1,175 per litre. This price cut of ₦100 marks the first decrease after three consecutive hikes in petrol prices, indicating a potential shift in the fuel pricing landscape.

What are the implications of this price reduction?

In addition to the petrol price adjustment, the price of diesel has also been reduced to ₦1,430 per litre from ₦1,620 per litre. The coastal distribution price for petrol now stands at ₦1,050 per litre. These changes are significant as they may alleviate some of the financial pressures on consumers and businesses alike, especially in light of recent volatility in global oil prices.

What led to these price adjustments?

The adjustments in fuel prices at the Dangote refinery are reflective of broader trends in the global oil market, which have been influenced by various geopolitical events. According to a statement from the refinery, “Under the revised pricing structure, the gantry price of PMS has been reduced from ₦1,175 to ₦1,075 (₦100) per litre.” This indicates a responsive strategy to fluctuating oil prices and market demands.

Who is affected by these changes?

The changes in fuel pricing are expected to impact a wide range of stakeholders, including consumers, transport operators, and businesses reliant on fuel for operations. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us due to the consistent source of product, which is much more important at this time than anything.” This underscores the refinery’s role in stabilizing fuel supply amid fluctuating prices.

What were the previous price trends?

Prior to the recent reductions, petrol prices had seen a steady increase, with prices recorded at ₦995 per litre on March 7, 2026, and ₦874 per litre on March 2, 2026. These increases had raised concerns among consumers and businesses, prompting calls for more stable pricing mechanisms.

What challenges remain in the fuel market?

Despite the recent price cuts, challenges in the fuel market persist. David Bird, a key industry figure, mentioned, “We have paused loadings as of midnight, and we’re updating the system to the new gantry price as a result of oil spiking $30 in the last 24 hours.” This highlights the ongoing volatility in oil prices and the potential for further adjustments in the near future.

What comes next?

As the market adjusts to these new prices, the long-term implications for consumers and the economy remain to be seen. Stakeholders will be closely monitoring the situation for any further changes in pricing and supply dynamics. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how these price adjustments will influence overall market stability in the coming weeks.

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The price of oil today has seen dramatic fluctuations, primarily influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate reached $119.48 per barrel. However, after these initial spikes, oil prices fell to under $90 late Monday, reflecting the volatility in the market.

Historical Context and Current Trends

Before the onset of the current conflict, oil prices were approximately $70 per barrel. This increase in prices can be attributed to the U.S. and Israel launching military actions against Iran on February 28, which has significantly impacted oil supply chains and market stability. Nicholas Mulder noted that “in economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever,” highlighting the unprecedented nature of the current situation.

U.S. Oil Exports and Domestic Prices

The United States plays a crucial role in the global oil market, exporting over 6 million barrels of refined products and more than 4 million barrels of crude oil daily. This robust export capacity has contributed to a net oil trade balance of 2.8 million barrels per day. However, the recent price surges have also led to increased domestic fuel costs, with gas prices in the U.S. rising to an average of $3.48 per gallon and diesel prices reaching about $4.66 per gallon.

Market Reactions and Future Projections

Market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, with some predicting further price increases if the conflict escalates. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for only a few weeks, oil and gas strategists at Macquarie Research have indicated that crude prices could push to $150 per barrel or higher. Roland Lescure remarked, “We’re not there yet,” suggesting that while the situation is serious, it may not have reached its peak.

Uncertainties Ahead

Despite the immediate impacts on oil prices, several uncertainties loom over the market. The long-term effects of the current oil price surge on inflation remain unclear, and the duration of the conflict and its effects on oil prices are still uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed, leaving analysts and consumers alike in a state of anticipation regarding future developments.

The fluctuations in oil prices today underscore the interconnectedness of global markets and the significant influence of geopolitical events. As tensions in the Middle East continue to evolve, the oil market will likely remain volatile, with potential implications for both domestic and international economies.

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