The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic Gulf waterway, has become the focal point of international concern as French President Emmanuel Macron announced preparations for a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the strait. This development comes in the wake of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has significantly impacted the region.

Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making its security crucial for global energy markets. The war has effectively shut down this vital passage, raising alarm over potential disruptions to oil supply and contributing to a sharp increase in crude oil prices. Since the onset of the conflict last month, prices have surged by about 50 percent.

On Monday, Brent crude prices surpassed $100 a barrel, reflecting the escalating tensions and fears surrounding oil supply routes. However, prices experienced a slight decline, dropping to $90 a barrel by Tuesday, marking an 8.45 percent decrease. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate prices also fell by 8.58 percent during the same period.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has issued a stern warning, asserting that they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US and Israeli attacks persist. This declaration underscores the heightened risks associated with the ongoing conflict and the potential for further escalation.

In response to the situation, the G7 finance ministers convened to discuss the potential release of emergency oil stocks, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy. Additionally, the French frigate Languedoc has been deployed to waters off Cyprus to enhance anti-drone and anti-missile defenses, reflecting France’s commitment to safeguarding maritime security in the region.

As tensions continue to mount, reactions from various officials highlight the precarious nature of the situation. Ali Larijani, a prominent Iranian politician, remarked, “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region.” Meanwhile, Macron emphasized the broader implications of the conflict, stating, “When Cyprus is attacked, then Europe is attacked.”

Former President Donald Trump also weighed in, warning that “death, fire, and fury will reign upon them (Iran) if they stopped the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz.” These statements reflect the high stakes involved in the ongoing conflict and the potential consequences for global oil supply.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the timeline for the end of the US-Israeli war on Iran, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed escort mission by France and its allies. The situation remains fluid, and the international community is closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

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On March 9, 2026, crude oil prices saw significant fluctuations as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Just before the market opened, Brent crude briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared to $119.48 per barrel. This spike in prices was largely attributed to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted oil production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil daily.

Price Dynamics

Prior to the conflict, crude oil was selling for around $70 per barrel. The situation changed dramatically after the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026. Following the initial surge, oil prices fell to under $90 later in the day, reflecting a volatile market response to the ongoing crisis.

Impact on Consumers

The fluctuations in crude oil prices have also impacted consumers directly. As of March 9, 2026, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. rose to $3.48, while diesel prices reached $4.66 per gallon. These increases are a direct consequence of the rising crude oil prices and the disruptions in supply chains.

Refinery Operations

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, one of the largest in Africa, operates at full capacity, processing about 650,000 barrels per day. However, the refinery is also affected by the rising costs of crude oil, which have led to increased prices for refined products. The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) was raised to ₦1,175 per litre, while the price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) increased to ₦1,620 per litre.

Freight Costs Surge

Freight costs have surged dramatically due to the heightened tensions, with tanker costs rising from about $800,000 to roughly $3.5 million per shipment. This increase in shipping costs further exacerbates the situation for consumers and businesses reliant on oil imports.

Expert Opinions

Experts have weighed in on the current state of the oil market. Nicholas Mulder remarked, “In economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever.” Meanwhile, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated, “We’re not there yet,” indicating that the situation may evolve further. President Donald Trump described the conflict as “very complete,” highlighting the seriousness of the geopolitical landscape.

Future Uncertainties

As the situation develops, uncertainties remain regarding future price trends of crude oil. The duration of the current energy crisis is also unclear, leaving consumers and businesses to navigate a turbulent market. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these events on global oil supply and pricing.

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The price of oil today has seen dramatic fluctuations, primarily influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate reached $119.48 per barrel. However, after these initial spikes, oil prices fell to under $90 late Monday, reflecting the volatility in the market.

Historical Context and Current Trends

Before the onset of the current conflict, oil prices were approximately $70 per barrel. This increase in prices can be attributed to the U.S. and Israel launching military actions against Iran on February 28, which has significantly impacted oil supply chains and market stability. Nicholas Mulder noted that “in economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever,” highlighting the unprecedented nature of the current situation.

U.S. Oil Exports and Domestic Prices

The United States plays a crucial role in the global oil market, exporting over 6 million barrels of refined products and more than 4 million barrels of crude oil daily. This robust export capacity has contributed to a net oil trade balance of 2.8 million barrels per day. However, the recent price surges have also led to increased domestic fuel costs, with gas prices in the U.S. rising to an average of $3.48 per gallon and diesel prices reaching about $4.66 per gallon.

Market Reactions and Future Projections

Market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, with some predicting further price increases if the conflict escalates. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for only a few weeks, oil and gas strategists at Macquarie Research have indicated that crude prices could push to $150 per barrel or higher. Roland Lescure remarked, “We’re not there yet,” suggesting that while the situation is serious, it may not have reached its peak.

Uncertainties Ahead

Despite the immediate impacts on oil prices, several uncertainties loom over the market. The long-term effects of the current oil price surge on inflation remain unclear, and the duration of the conflict and its effects on oil prices are still uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed, leaving analysts and consumers alike in a state of anticipation regarding future developments.

The fluctuations in oil prices today underscore the interconnectedness of global markets and the significant influence of geopolitical events. As tensions in the Middle East continue to evolve, the oil market will likely remain volatile, with potential implications for both domestic and international economies.

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The recent Dangote fuel price increase has dramatically altered the landscape of petrol pricing in Nigeria. Previously, consumers had grown accustomed to a more stable pricing environment, with petrol prices hovering around N930 per litre in Sokoto. However, this stability has been disrupted by a significant increase in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit to N995 per litre.

As a direct result of this increase, petrol is now selling between N1,000 and N1,190 per litre across various locations in Nigeria. In Abuja, prices range from N1,052 to N1,105 per litre, while in Lagos, they have surged as high as N1,190 per litre. Kaduna and Gombe have also seen notable price hikes, with petrol selling between N1,060 and N1,070, and N1,080 to N1,250 respectively.

Immediate Effects on Consumers and Transport Operators

The immediate aftermath of the price increase has led to panic buying in some areas, particularly in Jigawa State. Transport operators are feeling the pressure as they are forced to adjust their fares to keep up with rising fuel costs. Daniel Ishyaku, a transport operator, stated, “Fuel is now more than N1,000 per litre. I bought petrol at N1,060 today. If I don’t increase the fare, I will run at a loss.” This sentiment is echoed by many in the industry who are grappling with the financial strain.

Moreover, the increase in fuel prices has triggered a ripple effect on transport fares, which have risen as a direct consequence. One operator remarked, “When fuel goes up like this, transport fares follow immediately. But our salaries have not increased.” This highlights the growing concern among workers who feel the burden of rising costs without corresponding wage increases.

Broader Economic Implications

The surge in petrol prices is closely tied to the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the conflicts involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. This situation has disrupted global oil supply chains and contributed to a rise in Brent crude prices, which have now surpassed $90 per barrel.

Analysts caution that rising petrol prices often trigger a chain reaction across the economy, affecting everything from transport costs to the prices of goods and services. Abdulazeez Bello, a concerned citizen, voiced his frustration, stating, “The price of fuel is now on the other side. How does the government expect us to survive?”

As the situation continues to evolve, many Nigerians are left wondering how they will cope with the increasing cost of living. Ibrahim Musa, another affected individual, lamented, “We are really suffering. Before now, I could buy fuel with less money and still make a profit at the end of the day. Now, most of what we make goes back into buying petrol.” The implications of the Dangote fuel price increase are far-reaching, affecting not only individual consumers but the economy as a whole.

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has recently increased its petrol gantry price by N100, raising the ex-depot rate from N774 to N874 per litre. This adjustment represents an increase of approximately 12 percent, reflecting the refinery’s response to rising global oil prices and supply chain challenges.

Causes of the Price Adjustment

Several factors have contributed to this price increase. Notably, Brent crude prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted refining activities and tightened the global supply of petroleum products. The refinery has absorbed 20 percent of the cost escalation to cushion the domestic market, but the new gantry price has now reached N995 per litre, marking a N221 rise within just four days.

Comparative Pricing

In comparison, imported petrol is currently priced at N809.83 per litre, making it N64.2 per litre cheaper than Dangote’s petrol. This discrepancy raises questions about the competitiveness of local production versus imports, especially as the refinery receives only five cargoes a month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which falls short of the 13 cargoes required to adequately support sales into Nigeria.

Cost of Crude Oil

The landing cost of crude oil at the refinery ranges between $88 and $91 per barrel, with Nigerian crude oil being more expensive than the Brent benchmark price by $3 to $6 per barrel. These costs further complicate the refinery’s pricing strategy and its ability to maintain stable fuel prices in the domestic market.

Implications for the Domestic Market

The recent price adjustments have raised concerns among consumers and stakeholders about the potential for increased fuel costs across Nigeria. A senior official of the refinery confirmed the new gantry price, stating, “Yes, the price has been reviewed. The new gantry price is now N995 per litre.” This increase may affect transportation costs and the overall economy, as fuel prices are a critical component of operational expenses for various sectors.

Despite the challenges, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has expressed its commitment to ensuring that Nigeria is insulated from these supply shocks by prioritizing supply to the domestic market. A spokesperson stated, “Selling below cost would undermine its ability to procure crude, sustain production and guarantee uninterrupted supply to Nigerians.” This highlights the delicate balance the refinery must maintain between pricing and supply stability.

As the situation develops, the impact of these price changes on the broader economy and consumer behavior remains to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how long these prices will remain in effect and whether further adjustments are anticipated in the near future.

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