As of March 10, 2026, fuel prices in Nigeria have experienced a notable reduction. The price of petrol has been decreased to ₦1,075 per litre, down from ₦1,175 per litre. This shift comes amid fluctuations in global crude oil prices, which have impacted the local market significantly.

In addition to the reduction in petrol prices, diesel has also seen a decrease, now priced at ₦1,430 per litre, down from ₦1,620 per litre. Furthermore, petrol supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at ₦1,050 per litre, providing some relief to consumers.

The recent adjustments in fuel prices follow a brief spike earlier in March, where petrol had increased to ₦1,175 per litre on March 7, after being priced at ₦995 per litre just five days earlier. This volatility in pricing reflects the ongoing challenges in the global oil market, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions.

The backdrop to these price changes includes the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, which has raised global oil prices and contributed to the earlier hikes in petrol costs in Nigeria. As the situation evolves, the effects on fuel prices are closely monitored by both consumers and industry experts.

Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, an industry analyst, noted, “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us due to the consistent source of product.” This statement underscores the importance of local refining capabilities in stabilizing fuel prices amidst international market fluctuations.

Looking ahead, observers expect that the price of petrol may stabilize around ₦1,200 per litre in Lagos and approximately ₦1,300 elsewhere in Nigeria. The average daily crude consumption in Nigeria stands at 60.2 million litres, highlighting the significant demand for fuel in the country.

As the situation develops, the implications for the Nigerian economy and consumers remain to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding further price adjustments or potential impacts from international events affecting oil supply.

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In a significant move, Dangote Refinery has reduced the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre. Additionally, the price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, has been lowered to N1,430 per litre from N1,620 per litre. This adjustment reflects a response to the recent decline in global crude oil prices.

Current Market Conditions

The price of petrol has seen fluctuations, with reports indicating that it has risen to as much as N1,400 per litre at some filling stations. Meanwhile, diesel prices may potentially reach N1,750 per litre at filling stations in Abuja. Prior to these adjustments, the price of petrol had increased by N525 per litre at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) retail outlets, highlighting the volatility in fuel pricing.

Global Influences on Local Prices

The recent price adjustments at Dangote Refinery are influenced by broader market trends, particularly the fluctuations in global crude oil prices. Brent crude oil had peaked at $104.4 per barrel before moderating to $99.4 per barrel. This volatility has been a significant factor in the pricing strategies of fuel suppliers in Nigeria.

Expert Insights

Industry experts have weighed in on the implications of these price changes. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “We have a Naira-for-crude deal in place. However, the policy does not impact the crude oil price on the international crude oil market.” This statement underscores the complexities of local pricing mechanisms in the face of global market shifts.

Supply and Demand Considerations

Chinedu Ukadike commented on the benefits of the Dangote Refinery, stating, “The only benefit of Dangote Refinery is that there will be supply, no fuel scarcity.” This perspective highlights the refinery’s role in stabilizing supply amidst fluctuating prices and demand.

Geopolitical Factors

David Bird pointed out that geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing oil prices globally. He remarked, “I think it is very clear from global headlines that what is going on in the Middle East is impacting not just the oil price but also gas and LNG.” Such factors are essential to consider when analyzing fuel price trends in Nigeria.

Looking Ahead

As the market continues to evolve, observers are keenly watching how these price adjustments will affect consumer behavior and overall fuel consumption in Nigeria. While the current reductions may provide temporary relief, the potential for further price increases remains a concern. Details remain unconfirmed regarding future price stability and the impact of ongoing global events on local fuel prices.

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In a significant move, Dangote Refinery has reduced the price of petrol to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre, effective today. The price of diesel has also seen a decrease, now set at N1,430 per litre, down from N1,620 per litre.

The adjustment in prices comes as a response to a decline in global crude oil prices, which peaked at $104.4 per barrel before moderating to $99.4 per barrel. “The price adjustment came amid a recent decline in global crude oil prices,” a spokesperson for the refinery stated.

For consumers, petrol supplied through coastal distribution will be available at N1,050 per litre, providing a more affordable option amidst fluctuating market conditions. However, some filling stations have reported prices as high as N1,400 per litre for petrol, reflecting ongoing volatility in the market.

Despite the recent reductions, there are concerns about potential price increases in the near future. Diesel prices may rise to N1,750 per litre at filling stations in Abuja, indicating that consumers should remain vigilant regarding fuel costs. This follows a previous increase of N525 per litre at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited retail outlets before the recent adjustments.

Industry experts have weighed in on the situation. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “We have a Naira-for-crude deal in place. However, the policy does not impact the crude oil price on the international crude oil market.” This highlights the complexities of local pricing structures in relation to global oil market dynamics.

Chinedu Ukadike, an industry analyst, commented, “The only benefit of Dangote Refinery is that there will be supply, no fuel scarcity.” This suggests that while price adjustments are beneficial, the stability of supply is equally crucial for consumers.

As the market continues to react to global events, David Bird remarked, “I think it is very clear from global headlines that what is going on in the Middle East is impacting not just the oil price but also gas and LNG.” This underscores the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the potential for further price fluctuations.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding future price adjustments, but observers are closely monitoring the situation as it develops.

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On March 9, 2026, crude oil prices saw significant fluctuations as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Just before the market opened, Brent crude briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared to $119.48 per barrel. This spike in prices was largely attributed to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted oil production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil daily.

Price Dynamics

Prior to the conflict, crude oil was selling for around $70 per barrel. The situation changed dramatically after the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026. Following the initial surge, oil prices fell to under $90 later in the day, reflecting a volatile market response to the ongoing crisis.

Impact on Consumers

The fluctuations in crude oil prices have also impacted consumers directly. As of March 9, 2026, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. rose to $3.48, while diesel prices reached $4.66 per gallon. These increases are a direct consequence of the rising crude oil prices and the disruptions in supply chains.

Refinery Operations

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, one of the largest in Africa, operates at full capacity, processing about 650,000 barrels per day. However, the refinery is also affected by the rising costs of crude oil, which have led to increased prices for refined products. The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) was raised to ₦1,175 per litre, while the price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) increased to ₦1,620 per litre.

Freight Costs Surge

Freight costs have surged dramatically due to the heightened tensions, with tanker costs rising from about $800,000 to roughly $3.5 million per shipment. This increase in shipping costs further exacerbates the situation for consumers and businesses reliant on oil imports.

Expert Opinions

Experts have weighed in on the current state of the oil market. Nicholas Mulder remarked, “In economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever.” Meanwhile, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated, “We’re not there yet,” indicating that the situation may evolve further. President Donald Trump described the conflict as “very complete,” highlighting the seriousness of the geopolitical landscape.

Future Uncertainties

As the situation develops, uncertainties remain regarding future price trends of crude oil. The duration of the current energy crisis is also unclear, leaving consumers and businesses to navigate a turbulent market. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these events on global oil supply and pricing.

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“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” stated a source from the Dangote refinery. This remark comes as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has raised fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the global energy market.

As of March 8, 2026, NNPCL adjusted its pump price from N967 to N1,082 per liter in Abuja. Retail pump prices in various states have now exceeded N1,000 per liter, with some stations reportedly dispensing petrol at around N1,200 per liter.

The increase in prices follows a significant rise in crude oil prices, which have surged above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This situation has prompted the Dangote refinery to temporarily suspend the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), further complicating the supply chain.

According to reports, the refinery’s gantry price has increased from N874 to N995 per liter. The refinery currently receives only five cargoes a month from NNPC, falling short of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy. This has raised concerns about the sustainability of local refining amid increasing import pressures.

Mohammed Ibrahim, a local industry expert, commented, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This highlights the tensions between local producers and importers as fuel prices continue to escalate.

Furthermore, a Dangote refinery official emphasized, “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply.” This statement underscores the challenges faced by local refineries in maintaining operations amid rising costs.

Jeremiah Olatide, another industry analyst, noted, “If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre.” This suggests that the local refining capacity is playing a crucial role in moderating potential price hikes.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders, aiming to stabilize the supply chain.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the immediate impact of these crude oil supply interventions on petrol prices. The long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices also remain uncertain as the situation develops.

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“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” said a source from the Dangote refinery.

This statement comes as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has increased fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours. The pump price in Abuja has been adjusted from N967 to N1,082 per liter.

Retail pump prices in several states have now exceeded N1,000 per liter, with some stations reportedly dispensing petrol at around N1,200 per liter. This surge in prices has raised concerns among consumers and industry stakeholders alike.

The increase in prices is compounded by the temporary suspension of loading Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) at the Dangote refinery, which has seen its gantry price rise from N874 to N995 per liter.

In 2025, US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels, marking a 161% increase from the previous year. However, the Dangote refinery is currently receiving only five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the required thirteen cargoes under the naira-for-crude policy.

As crude oil prices have surged above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the implications for local fuel pricing are becoming increasingly pronounced.

Mohammed Ibrahim, an industry expert, commented, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This sentiment reflects the ongoing tensions between local refineries and fuel importers in Nigeria.

A Dangote refinery official stated, “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply,” highlighting the challenges faced by local producers amidst rising global prices.

Jeremiah Olatide, another industry voice, noted, “If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” underscoring the critical role of local refining in stabilizing prices.

As the situation unfolds, the immediate impact of the crude oil supply intervention on petrol prices remains unclear. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices.

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