The emergence of the cicada COVID variant BA.3.2 raises significant questions about its implications for public health. What do we know about this variant, and how does it compare to previous strains? BA.3.2 is a descendant of the Omicron variant and was first identified in South Africa in November 2024. This variant carries more than 50 mutations in its spike protein relative to BA.3, which may affect its behavior and interaction with existing immunity.
As of February 2026, BA.3.2 has been detected in at least 23 countries, indicating its potential for widespread transmission. Notably, it has also been found in the wastewater systems of 29 states in the U.S., highlighting its presence in the community. Despite these findings, the World Health Organization (WHO) classified BA.3.2 as a Variant Under Monitoring on December 5, 2025, suggesting that while it warrants attention, it does not currently pose a high public health risk compared to other circulating Omicron descendent lineages.
Experts have noted that BA.3.2 shows signs of being able to partially evade existing COVID-19 immunity, which raises concerns about reinfection rates. However, vaccines are still expected to protect against severe illness caused by this variant. According to a pulmonary and critical care doctor, “There’s no sign so far that BA.3.2… is any more dangerous or causes more severe disease than the variants that were circulating in the winter of 2025-26.” This statement provides some reassurance as the world continues to navigate the pandemic.
What the data shows
Data indicates that BA.3.2 does not appear to be outcompeting other variants currently in circulation. The CDC has characterized BA.3.2 as a “new lineage” of “highly divergent” SARS-CoV-2, emphasizing its distinct genetic makeup. However, there is no clear evidence that BA.3.2 causes more severe disease than other variants. This is crucial information as healthcare systems continue to manage the ongoing impact of COVID-19.
During the 2024-25 respiratory virus season, the U.S. experienced significant hospitalizations, with estimates ranging from 390,000 to 550,000, and deaths between 45,000 and 64,000. These figures underscore the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19, even as new variants emerge. The cicada strain, as it is colloquially known, could be associated with seasonal increases in COVID-19 activity, according to the CDC.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact timeline of BA.3.2’s emergence, with estimates suggesting it may have appeared between December 2023 and July 2024. This uncertainty highlights the need for continued surveillance and research to better understand the dynamics of this variant and its potential impact on public health.
In summary, while the cicada COVID variant BA.3.2 has raised concerns due to its mutations and potential for immune evasion, current evidence suggests it does not pose a significantly greater risk than existing variants. Ongoing monitoring and research will be essential in the coming months to assess its behavior and inform public health responses effectively.