The war’s origins can be traced back to a surprise strike by Israel that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on February 28. This attack not only eliminated a key figure in Iranian leadership but also triggered a series of retaliatory actions from Iran, including missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory that killed at least 12 people. In response, the Israeli government declared a nationwide state of emergency, signaling the seriousness of the threat posed by Iranian retaliation.

In the wake of the initial attacks, Iran has vowed to resist the Israeli offensive and has demanded reparations from the United States for the damage caused by the military actions. The U.S. military investigation confirmed America’s liability in an attack that resulted in the tragic deaths of 175 innocent schoolgirls, further complicating the geopolitical landscape and fueling anti-U.S. sentiments in Iran.

The economic impact of the conflict is already being felt globally, with the war costing the U.S. approximately $11.3 billion within its first six days. This financial burden is compounded by rising costs of goods and services worldwide, as the conflict continues to disrupt supply chains and energy prices. The situation has prompted concerns in various countries, including Nigeria, where petrol and diesel prices have surged to ₦1,350 and ₦1,700 per litre, respectively.

Reaction from the field

As the conflict escalates, reactions from various leaders highlight the gravity of the situation. Alireza Salarian, Iran’s ambassador to Cyprus, remarked, “Nobody expected or predicted the attacks when we had finished a third round of negotiations in Geneva.” This sentiment reflects the shock and unpredictability that has characterized the recent developments. Meanwhile, retired major general Noam Tibon stated, “I think they have realized that all previous negotiations with Iran have been a waste of time,” indicating a shift in perceptions regarding diplomatic efforts.

Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz expressed solidarity, stating, “We all stand together — and we will win!” This statement underscores the resolve of Israeli leadership in the face of Iranian aggression. Conversely, Ayman Odeh, a left-wing Arab-Israeli parliamentarian, cautioned citizens, saying, “Take good care of yourselves — because this government will not do it for you,” reflecting concerns about domestic security and government effectiveness amid the ongoing conflict.

As the war continues, uncertainties loom large over its long-term impact on the global economy and the potential for a broader regional conflict. The outcome of this conflict and its implications for U.S. and Israeli strategy remain unconfirmed. With Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei asserting that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as a “tool of pressure,” the stakes are higher than ever, and the situation warrants close monitoring.

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The price of fuel in Nigeria has been influenced by global crude oil prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Recently, the Dangote Refinery announced a reduction in petrol prices, lowering the cost to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre. This change marks a significant shift in the market, as the price of diesel was also reduced to N1,430 per litre from N1,620 per litre.

Additionally, petrol supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at N1,050 per litre. In contrast, petrol prices in Abuja currently range between N1,260 and N1,280 per litre, while in Lagos, prices are between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre. Prior to these adjustments, petrol prices were between N809 and N835 per litre.

The recent price reductions have been welcomed by consumers, but they come amidst a backdrop of fluctuating global oil prices and regional instability. President Bola Tinubu has also ordered the deployment of 100,000 CNG conversion kits, a move aimed at diversifying fuel options and potentially stabilizing prices further.

Key industry players and observers are closely monitoring the situation. The adjustments in fuel prices are expected to have a ripple effect on the economy, influencing transportation costs and overall inflation rates. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is likely to play a crucial role in overseeing these changes and ensuring compliance with new pricing structures.

As the market adjusts to these new prices, stakeholders are optimistic about the potential for greater stability in fuel costs. However, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global oil supplies remain a concern. Observers are keen to see how these factors will influence future pricing and availability of fuel in Nigeria.

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“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” said a source from the Dangote refinery.

This statement comes as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has increased fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours. The pump price in Abuja has been adjusted from N967 to N1,082 per liter.

Retail pump prices in several states have now exceeded N1,000 per liter, with some stations reportedly dispensing petrol at around N1,200 per liter. This surge in prices has raised concerns among consumers and industry stakeholders alike.

The increase in prices is compounded by the temporary suspension of loading Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) at the Dangote refinery, which has seen its gantry price rise from N874 to N995 per liter.

In 2025, US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels, marking a 161% increase from the previous year. However, the Dangote refinery is currently receiving only five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the required thirteen cargoes under the naira-for-crude policy.

As crude oil prices have surged above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the implications for local fuel pricing are becoming increasingly pronounced.

Mohammed Ibrahim, an industry expert, commented, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This sentiment reflects the ongoing tensions between local refineries and fuel importers in Nigeria.

A Dangote refinery official stated, “Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee supply,” highlighting the challenges faced by local producers amidst rising global prices.

Jeremiah Olatide, another industry voice, noted, “If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” underscoring the critical role of local refining in stabilizing prices.

As the situation unfolds, the immediate impact of the crude oil supply intervention on petrol prices remains unclear. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices.

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